Mitigating Iran's Electricity Deficit through Household Photovoltaic Expansion: A System Dynamics Approach with Impact Analysis on CO₂ Emissions and Water Resources

This study employs System Dynamics modeling to assess the expansion of household photovoltaic (PV) systems as a strategy to mitigate Iran's electricity deficit, which is exacerbated by urban air pollution, reliance on fossil fuels, and natural gas shortages. By evaluating five investment allocation scenarios between household PV and thermal power plants, the findings indicate that an optimal configuration consists of a 75% PV and 25% thermal power split. Under this scenario, the capacity deficit is reduced to 5.6 GW by 1412, significantly outperforming conventional thermal expansion, which results in a 25.2 GW shortfall. By 1430, this policy enables PV generation to reach 457.6 TWh, supplying 58.9% of total electricity demand while reducing CO₂ emissions by 69.8 million tons and water consumption by 340.1 billion m³. These improvements contribute to enhanced air quality, reduced water scarcity, and decreased dependence on natural gas. Nevertheless, the results reveal that even extensive PV deployment cannot fully satisfy long-term electricity demand, with a projected shortfall of 15.4 GW by 1430 under the optimal scenario. While household PV systems offer substantial short- and mid-term advantages, a holistic energy strategy incorporating diverse solutions remains essential to ensuring Iran’s long-term energy security.