PREDICTIVE MANAGEMENT OF AVIATION FLIGHT SAFETYIN EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAUSED BY LANDSCAPE FIRE

The article considers issues related to improving the quality of decisions madein managing aviation flight safety in emergencies caused by landscape fires. Effective decision-making requires the integrated use of analytical methods, a large amount of data describing the stateof the environment and methods for interpreting the results. Improving the efficiency of managementin real time ensured by using predictive information on the state of the environment. To establish predictive values of environmental parameters based on retrospective information, a set of new significant parameters that affect both the course of an emergency and the safety of aviation flights identified. Information on the spatio-temporal distribution of the refractive index of the atmosphereand variations in its gradient used as significant parameters. This made it possible to establish spatial boundaries in the environment with extreme values of atmospheric parameters that have a negative impact on flight safety in emergencies caused by landscape fires. The technologies used in predictive management made it possible to analyze large data on atmospheric parameters, carry out expert assessments of environmental conditions from the point of view of their impact on flight safety,and forecast possible negative situations in the development of emergencies caused by landscape fires.