Demography of marine birds in the Northeast Atlantic: Informed parameter values for population modelling

Abstract Matrix models are often used to assess and predict the impact of human activities on wild populations. These models require input values of demographic parameters, that is survival and fecundity. However, empirical estimates of these parameters are often not available, particularly for survival. We built matrix population models for 25 species of marine birds in the north‐east Atlantic. These models were based on long‐term monitoring data on abundance and breeding productivity, collated for an environmental status assessment under the OSPAR Convention for the Protection of the North‐East Atlantic. We started with literature‐based values of age‐specific survival and tuned these values to fit the observed population growth rate. This database presents tuned values of age‐specific survival for 25 species in four regions of the north‐east Atlantic, a total of 54 regional populations. In addition, we report modelled generation time as well as the level of breeding productivity required to maintain a stable population for the same populations. Practical implication . Our tuned values of age‐specific survival should be used as starting values in future modelling exercises. They represent means over relatively large scales and long timespans and may need adjusting to local conditions.

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Publication Details

Journal
Ecological Solutions and Evidence
Published
2025-10-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.70150
Primary Topic
Avian ecology and behavior
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Demography of marine birds in the Northeast Atlantic: Informed parameter values for population modelling

Ecological Solutions and Evidence
Avian ecology and behavior
article

Demography of marine birds in the Northeast Atlantic: Informed parameter values for population modelling

article en

Abstract

Abstract Matrix models are often used to assess and predict the impact of human activities on wild populations. These models require input values of demographic parameters, that is survival and fecundity. However, empirical estimates of these parameters are often not available, particularly for survival. We built matrix population models for 25 species of marine birds in the north‐east Atlantic. These models were based on long‐term monitoring data on abundance and breeding productivity, collated for an environmental status assessment under the OSPAR Convention for the Protection of the North‐East Atlantic. We started with literature‐based values of age‐specific survival and tuned these values to fit the observed population growth rate. This database presents tuned values of age‐specific survival for 25 species in four regions of the north‐east Atlantic, a total of 54 regional populations. In addition, we report modelled generation time as well as the level of breeding productivity required to maintain a stable population for the same populations. Practical implication . Our tuned values of age‐specific survival should be used as starting values in future modelling exercises. They represent means over relatively large scales and long timespans and may need adjusting to local conditions.

Ecological Solutions and EvidenceVol. 6(4)
Research Institute for Nature and Forest (BE), Aarhus University (DK), Joint Nature Conservation Committee (GB), Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology (NL), Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NO), Norwegian Polar Institute (NO)
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 37%
Avian ecology and behavior
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