ON TARGETING UNESCO'S BENCHMARK(S) ON BUDGETARY ALLOCATIONS TO EDUCATION SECTOR IN NIGERIA: A STATISTICAL CONCEPTUALISATION

The UNESCO’s recommended benchmarks of 15%, 20% and 26% for annual percentagebudgetary allocations to the education sector of Nigeria were targeted beyond 2023. Thepercentage budgetary allocations to the education sector of Nigeria by the FederalGovernment of Nigeria from 1960 to 2023 fell below the UNESCO’s benchmarks, except in1997. The simple linear regression analyses revealed a gradual upward linear trend; withpositive and significant intercept and slope. Also, an upward linear trend was establishedwith positive and significant intercept and slope when the Pre-Recent Democratic Regime(1960-1998) was studied. A downward linear trend, with a positive and significant interceptand a non-significant negative slope was established for the allocations during the RecentDemocratic Regime (1999-2023); and thus the model was not used in the forecasts. Theforecast results, obtained using the model for (1960-2023) showed that the UNESCO’sbenchmarks of 15%, 20%, and 26% would be attained in Nigeria in 2102, 2163, and 2236,respectively. On the other hand, using the model for (1960-1998), the benchmarks of 15%,20%, and 26% would be attained by Nigeria in 2066, 2109, and 2161, respectively. Anattempted targeting on the UNESCO’s benchmarks, when the slope of the model for (1960-2023) was doubled, revealed that the benchmarks of 15%, 20%, and 26% would be attainedby Nigeria in 2031, 2061, and 2098, respectively; while when the slope of the model for(1960-1998) was doubled, two UNESCO’s benchmarks of 20% and 26% would be attained inNigeria in 2034 and 2060, respectively; and that of 15% would have long been attained in2013. In the cases the slopes were tripled, the model for (1960-2023) revealed theattainments of two benchmarks of 20% and 26% in 2027 and 2052, respectively; and that of15% would have long been attained in 2007. Finally, tripling the slope of the model for(1960-1998) revealed that just one benchmark of 26% would be attained in 2027; and thoseof 15% and 20% would have long been attained in 1995 and 2009, respectively.