Scenario Construction and Deduction of Emergency Response for Landslide Disasters in Rural Communities

This study examines the profound impact of landslide disasters on rural communities, proposing a scenario-based predisaster emergency response strategy. By integrating complex adaptive system theory with knowledge metatheory, we developed scenarios tailored to rural vulnerabilities, using the 7.1 landslide disaster in rural Guizhou, China, as a foundational exemplar for scenario construction. We then applied a dynamic Bayesian network for scenario deduction, analyzing how various elements shape the trajectory and effectiveness of emergency interventions over time. Our findings expose the limitations of traditional forecast-response models and the inefficacy of isolated data points in emergency management. Incorporating time-sensitive and community-specific data, our model markedly improves deduction precision and planning relevance. This research offers a vital framework for government and community management authorities to facilitate the two major vulnerabilities of predisaster risk analysis and emergency preparedness, thereby bolstering resilience against landslides in rural communities.