Academic credentials and career outcomes: evidence from Brazilian economists

Purpose We analyze how academic credentials relate to career outcomes using linked microdata on Brazilian economists, focusing on two credentials (admission test scores and program prestige) and multiple outcomes spanning the labor market (e.g. wages) and research productivity (e.g. publication incidence). Design/methodology/approach We follow 888 master’s graduates over nearly a decade to track their career development. To address endogeneity and sample-selection issues, we estimate a set of Heckman selection models with endogenous regressors. Findings Wages are positively associated with admission test scores but not with program prestige. Research productivity shows mixed associations with these credentials. Overall, the estimates are suggestive of – but do not establish – a sorting mechanism whereby a larger share of high-scoring students from top programs select into non-academic, higher-paying careers, whereas graduates from lower-ranked programs are relatively more likely to pursue academic careers within Brazil. Research limitations/implications Partial observability and the context-specific nature of the data limit the generalizability of our findings; future work should lengthen the observation window and follow additional cohorts. Practical implications Findings inform applicants, programs and policymakers about potential trade-offs between prestige and career paths. Social implications Insights into sorting between academic and non-academic careers can inform policies to retain research talent. Originality/value We provide novel evidence on Brazilian economists’ early careers using linked administrative and bibliometric microdata, combining sample-selection correction with endogenous regressors.