DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD IN THE TURGENT RIVER BASIN AND ITS IMPACT ON TOURISM DEVELOPMENT

This article examines the impact of debris flow hazard resulting from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) on the development of recreation in the Turgen River valley, located in the Ile Alatau Range (Northern Tien Shan, Kazakhstan). The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of bathymetric surveys of moraine-glacial lakes, detailed field observations, and meteorological data from 2024, which provide up-to-date insights into hydrometeorological conditions and glacial lake dynamics. The research focuses on understanding the potential triggers and consequences of GLOFs in a seismically active and climatically sensitive alpine environment. To determine the potential extent of debris flow propagation, numerical modeling was carried out using the RAMMS software (Debris Flow module), which enabled the construction of three possible breach and debris flow scenarios, taking into account valley geometry, topographic conditions, and key flow parameters such as height, velocity, and dynamic pressure. These scenarios were selected to reflect both worst-case and more probable events, allowing for a robust evaluation of hazards. A risk assessment of catastrophic debris flow occurrence and their potential impact on the region’s tourism infrastructure - such as roads, trails, visitor centers, and recreational sites - was conducted. The findings reveal specific zones of high vulnerability and inform targeted mitigation strategies. Recommendations for reducing debris flow risks and ensuring the sustainable development of tourism in mountainous regions are also proposed. The study highlights the importance of integrating scientific research, geospatial modeling, and hazard risk assessment into comprehensive natural hazard risk management practices to support safe and sustainable territorial development in high-altitude tourist destinations.