Techno-economic assessment of floating photovoltaic systems to strengthen local energy security: A case study of the Valsequillo Dam, Mexico

Floating Photovoltaic (FPV) systems offer a promising yet underexplored alternative to fulfill the growing demand for energy. This study practically evaluates the viability of deploying an FPV system on the Valsequillo Dam in central Mexico, a large reservoir without any energy infrastructure. A land-based photovoltaic (LPV) system with identical design parameters was also modeled to provide a comparative benchmark. The assessment integrates geospatial clustering of nearby settlements, climatic analysis, energy yield modeling, and a detailed techno-economic analysis supported by sensitivity and Monte Carlo simulations. Despite enhanced cooling of FPV and land-use efficiency, the LPV system achieves a lower levelized cost of electricity (46.7 vs 59.2 USD/MWh for FPV) and a positive net present value (NPV) of 16.6 million USD; however, FPV's higher cost and design constraints (e.g., panel tilt limitation) have dropped the NPV to values as low as −5.7 million USD. The uncertainty analysis highlights the critical role of cost reduction, energy price, and policy incentives in enhancing the viability of FPV. Higher overhead costs as well as political interests toward fossil fuels must be overcome to provide stable investment atmosphere. By implementing targeted strategies, FPVs could be integrated into the infrastructure planning in underutilized regions such as Puebla in Mexico or other similar locations globally to catalyze transition to cleaner energies. Otherwise, despite the privilege of adequate solar irradiance, risk – reward imbalance could further discourage investors to engage with renewable energy projects in Mexico. • Valsequillo has an adequate climatic profile for PV harvesting • Losses due to float stability outdid the overperformance of cooler operation • Projected capacity factors rank Valsequillo among top 5 % globally • High costs exclude central Mexico from PV development initiatives • Cost reduction and regulatory incentives are key to scaling PV adoption in Mexico