Faisabilité et conséquences de la transition vers les sources d'énergie renouvelables en Bosnie et Herzégovine

Energy transition from predominantly fossil fuel driven to renewables driven system is one of the key problems human civilization is facing. Solutions for this problem come in many forms and shapes, but most of them are often one sided and limited in perspective for such a complex problem. Climate change mitigation and technology drive energy transition, but uneven progress persists due to social, environmental, and economic barriers. This research investigates the multifaceted challenges of the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, with a specific focus on Bosnia and Herzegovina - BiH. The research attempts to provide a holistic framework, integrating four sustainability dimensions - Economic, Technological, Environmental, and Social - to address gaps in current methodologies and provide scenarios for public and private decision makers for a small developing country. BiH has a coal-dominated energy sector, accounting for 60-70% of electricity. Despite significant renewables potential, challenges with outdated infrastructure, employment, regulatory problems, and fragmented governance impede progress. This research used surveys with experts and expert validation to establish variables and then model using System Dynamics to analyze dependencies and provide insights. The inclusion of an integrated methodology with four dimensions is a valuable contribution, highlighting the importance of a holistic approach to energy planning. A broader comparison with similar studies in other countries would strengthen the study’s impact. Key findings highlight the importance of considering social dynamics, public resistance, employment concerns, governmental incentives and limitations in the BiH case, technological implications, and economic cost. The research concludes with recommendations for transition processes, incentivizing renewable investments, and adhering to international obligations while respecting the realities of the context of BiH. The proposed model provides a tool for policymakers to understand the complexities of energy transitions, with insights for similar contexts contributing to bridging gaps and advancing sustainable energy solutions. Keywords: energy, transition, electricity, sustainability, System Dynamics, coal, renewables, wind, solar, modeling, employment, health, holistic, economy, environment, social, technology. Specific objectives of the investigation are the following: • Establish the theoretical grounds for a comprehensive approach to describing and modelling power generation system in a comprehensive way through four proposed sustainability dimensions – Social, Economic, Technological, Environmental, with particular focus on consideration and formalization of the social implications within the Social dimension. • Find the methodological tools that allow the design of a holistic valuation model of a power generation system transition in a context of a small developing country, namely Bosnia and Herzegovina.