Strategic Autonomy or Structural Dependency? Nigeria's Geoeconomic Statecraft in a Multipolar World

This study examines Nigeria’s geoeconomic statecraft within the context of a multipolar world, focusing on the tension between strategic autonomy and structural dependency in its external economic relations. The objectives are to analyse how Nigeria’s external engagements reflect the dynamics of autonomy or dependency; examine the institutional and policy frameworks guiding its geoeconomic strategy; and assess the implications of its current posture for long-term development, foreign policy independence, and regional leadership. Guided by the Theory of Geoeconomics popularized by Edward N. Luttwak (1990), the study explores how economic instruments have replaced military power as tools of statecraft in shaping national influence. The study employs a qualitative research design, relying entirely on secondary data from government publications, academic literature, policy documents, and international reports. Data are analysed thematically to identify recurring patterns in Nigeria’s external economic behaviour and institutional responses to global economic shifts. Findings reveal that Nigeria’s external economic relations are characterised by a persistent tension between strategic ambition and structural dependency. While policy frameworks such as the NIRP, ERGP, and National Development Plan articulate aspirations for economic sovereignty, weak institutional capacity and macroeconomic instability continue to constrain progress. The study further finds that Nigeria’s dependence on oil exports, external borrowing, and import reliance undermines its long-term development, foreign policy independence, and regional leadership. The study concludes that Nigeria’s geoeconomic ambition remains constrained by structural vulnerabilities and institutional inefficiencies. Achieving genuine strategic autonomy requires sustained diversification, institutional strengthening, and coherent alignment between foreign economic policy and domestic resilience. It recommends that government deepen industrial diversification, reform institutional frameworks for efficiency and transparency, and recalibrate foreign economic partnerships to promote balanced and sustainable growth.