"LAWRENCE'S BUTTERFLY" OR REQUIEM FOR THE DREAM OF AN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION ALGORITHM

For an earthquake (a discharge of energy), explosion, a snow avalanche, mountain strike and other seismic events to occur, it is necessary to change the thermodynamic indicators of the system. It can be: a sudden change in temperature or pressure in the system (for example, phase transition), a change in the critical mass of the nuclear charge, the appearance of radicals during chemical reactions (chain reactions), a sudden change in volume of the system or its physical-mechanical properties (for example, Rehbinder effect). It is known that the change in ambient temperature is already enough to cause a snow avalanche, and the movement of magma can cause a swarm of earthquakes. Based on this, we can assume that these events, located in different natural environments, have a common thermodynamic mechanism of initiation. To the process of snow avalanche should be added such processes as sliding glaciers, catastrophic collapses, etc. In most cases we cannot prevent these processes and therefore it is important for us to know the forecast of these events to prevent their sudden onset. This article discusses the possibility of predicting earthquakes and snow avalanches in light of modern advances in thermodynamics.