SECTORAL WATER CONSUMPTION AND EXTRACTION IN MONGOLIA: TRENDS AND ANALYTICAL OPTIMIZATION

Water resources in Mongolia are subject to increasing pressure due to climate variability, uneven geographical distribution, and sectoral demand disparities. In 2023, national water extraction totaled 2,140.1 million m³, with 78.9% from surface sources and 21.1% from groundwater, while total consumption reached 440.8 million m³. Agriculture dominated usage at over 75%, followed by mining, energy, manufacturing, and construction, indicating high sectoral concentration and potential inefficiencies. This study quantitatively analyzes sectoral water consumption and extraction from 2019–2023, employing the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), linear trend extrapolation, and constrained optimization using the Lagrange multiplier method. Forecasts for 2025 reveal stable to moderately declining consumption in most sectors, except for rapid increases in mining, construction, and sewerage infrastructure. Sector-specific correlations between consumption and extraction vary: agriculture, forestry, fisheries, hunting shows an almost perfect positive association (R² ≈ 0.99), whereas household water use exhibits a weak negative relationship (R² ≈ 0.29), reflecting efficiency improvements. Optimization results, constrained by a total resource of 2,194.3 million m³, suggest substantial reallocation is necessary to maximize economic efficiency: agricultural consumption should decrease by 29%, while mining, electricity generation, and manufacturing should increase by 565–8,700%, prioritizing sectors with high economic returns. These findings demonstrate that current water-use patterns are suboptimal, with resource misallocation limiting overall system efficiency. The study provides a first-of-its-kind evidence-based framework for integrated water resource management in Mongolia, combining statistical analysis and mathematical programming to evaluate intersectoral relationships, forecast trends, and guide strategic allocation. By highlighting the trade-offs between economic benefits, sectoral demand, and sustainable usage, the research informs national water policy, supports SDG 6 objectives, and underscores the need for balancing consumption efficiency with environmental and social considerations. This integrative approach establishes a methodological foundation for long-term planning, promoting equitable, sustainable, and economically optimized water resource management in arid and semi-arid contexts.