MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF INSECURITY ON TUBER CROP PRODUCTION IN NIGER STATE: CHALLENGES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

This study investigates the impact of insecurity on root and tuber crop production in Niger State, Nigeria, using the Cobb between insecurity and agricultural productivity. As -Douglas production function. The results indicate a clear negative relationship the security factor (h) declines from 0.8 to 0.2, crop production decreases from 25,147.23 kg to 22,197.54 kg, representing a 10.6% reduction. In extreme insecurity scenarios (h = 0.1), output further drops to 20,855.09 kg, a 28.58% decline. Feature importance analysis revealed that, weed control (0.367) and land availability (0.242) are the most significant factors influencing productivity, while insecurity (0.0902) has a relatively lower but influential impact. The study highlights that insecurity restricts access to essential inputs, discourages agricultural investments, and reduces labor availability, leading to inefficiencies in food production. Sensitivity analysis suggests that beyond a critical insecurity threshold, farming becomes unsustainable. To mitigate these effects, the study recommends improved rural security measures and government-supported agricultural programs. These findings provide quantitative insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop data-driven interventions that enhance agricultural resilience, improve food security, and stabilize rural economies in conflict-prone regions.