Analysis of water resources carrying capacity in North China based on system dynamics

North China Water resource security is pivotal for regional development, with water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) playing a crucial role in ensuring this security. This study quantifies WRCC in North China by integrating the entropy method, CRITIC, and game theory to determine indicator weights, then constructs a system dynamics model for spatiotemporal evaluation and scenario forecasting. Furthermore, based on scenario analysis, four different future development scenarios for the North China region are proposed: current, water-saving, development, and comprehensive scenarios. The results reveal that WRCC in North China increased by 33.3 % between 2013 and 2022, aligning with observed trends and validating model reliability. The water-saving scenario reduced consumption but hindered economic growth, yielding minimal gains over current trends. The development scenario initially boosted ratings but later declined due to unsustainable water use. In contrast, the comprehensive scenarios balanced conservation and growth, showing early fluctuations followed by sustained improvement, with WRCC increased 19.96 % from 2022 to 2035. This study fills gaps in large-scale system dynamics applications, offers policymakers a transferable tool for adaptive water governance in water-stressed regions globally. • Develops a system dynamics-based WRCC assessment framework. • The framework supports the analysis and prediction of WRCC at large areas. • Identifies 19.96 % WRCC growth in North China via scenarios (2022–2035). • Enables large-scale WRCC prediction with socio-ecological coupling. • Reveals spatiotemporal water conservation-economy trade-offs.