Assessment of the Air Transportation Market in the Economies of Newly Independent States and Forecast of Its Development

ABSTRACT The object of the study is the air transportation market in the newly independent states. The problem of assessing the relationship between air transportation indicators and economic indicators is solved on their example. The results obtained: 1. A comparative analysis of air transportation indicators and various economic indicators in the newly independent states has been carried out. It was found that indicators in the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019) had positive dynamics, during the pandemic (2020-2021) there was a widespread decline caused by the imposed restrictions, after the pandemic (2022-2024) there is a recovery of indicators, while often the level of 2019 is not reached. 2. According to the results of correlation analysis, it was found that there is a relationship (more than 85%) between air transportation indicators and the volume of GDP per capita in the newly independent states. A regression model R2 = 0.962 was compiled, which shows that the variables: «volume of passenger air transportation» and «volume of air cargo transportation» are significant for the estimation of “GDP per capita” (p < 0.01). This indicates the relationship between the growth of air transportation and the economic development indicators of the countries. 3. Using the ARIMA time series forecasting model, a forecast of air transportation indicators and economic indicators of the countries for the next 3 years was formed. By 2028 it is forecasted +43% for cargo transportation, +9.8% for passenger traffic, +9% for GDP per capita, -3.8% for unemployment, +12.2% for the share of middle class. The results obtained are explained by the fact that the air transportation market of newly independent states is dynamically developing and allows countries to effectively integrate into the global economy. The peculiarities of the results obtained are that they confirm the importance of air transportation as an indicator of economic development. The practical significance of this study is the possibility of using its results to develop strategies and recommendations to optimize air transportation and improve the economic situation in the newly independent states.