A Risk Assessment Method Using Neutrosophic PERT-FMEA

Classical failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a widely used technique for conducting risk analysis and evaluation in safety engineering. Nonetheless, it faces challenges because of its assumption of equal importance for severity, occurrence, and detection as well as uncertainties stemming from expert judgment and limited system data. To address these issues, this study introduces an FMEA extension utilizing the neutrosophic program evaluation and review technique (NPERT) approach. Furthermore, the significance weights of the risk parameters were established using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, which is based on single-valued neutrosophic sets (SVNS) and triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). This method was hypothetically applied to a centrally controlled natural-gas heating system. Compared to the traditional FMEA, the proposed method produced more precise results and improved performance, facilitating better decision-making under uncertain conditions.