Lithium in Latin America: A dynamic material flow analysis and mapping CO2, water, and land footprints to 2050

The rapid expansion of electrification is driving soaring lithium demand, raising concerns about supply sustainability and ecological impacts. This study traces lithium flows across the Lithium Triangle and 27 other Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, projecting sustainability through 2050 under alternative technology scenarios. Results show a major imbalance: in 2022, lithium exports (as lithium carbonate equivalent, LCE) exceeded imports (products containing lithium, converted to LCE) by over 100-fold, and will remain 10 times higher by mid-century. Technology-driven approach could mitigate impacts, avoiding up to 29 Mt of CO 2 emissions, conserving 1384 Mm³ of water, and restoring 1973 km² of land. Despite vast reserves, LAC holds only a marginal position in the global value chain. Moving from resource supplier to integrated actor will require sustainable mining, investment in local manufacturing, and expansion of recycling to secure economic gains alongside environmental resilience.