Surrogate Diplomacy: An Evolving Diplomatic Paradigm For New Era Geopolitics

This paper illustrates the evolution of third-party intermediaries from crisis ad-hoc responders to credible systemic actors, i.e. diplomatic surrogates. The main argument is that surrogate diplomacy signifies a transition from state-centric international relations towards networked international relations, having more effective and systematic means of resolving disputes than traditional diplomacy in multipolar conditions. Surrogate diplomacy's capabilities of plausible deniability, asymmetric engagement, contextual modularity and distance make it a viable means of conducting diplomacy in the modern world. In the contemporary context, these characteristics position the surrogate of diplomatic activity at the centre of adaptive diplomacy, enabling it to manage relations in an increasingly complex, multi-polar world. The central argument of this paper is that surrogate diplomacy represents a shift away from state-centric diplomacy and toward networked diplomacy, as presented through the creation and analysis of the Adaptive Surrogate Diplomacy Framework (ASDF), which includes a five-stage Maturity Model of Surrogate Diplomacy as a component.