REVISITING CARBON-INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING: A VECM-BASED DYNAMIC CAUSALITY APPROACH

Purpose: This study empirically examines the causal and dynamic links between per capita CO 2 emissions and average near-surface temperature. It evaluates both short- and long-term effects and provides evidence-based guidance for carbon management and sustainability. Method: We utilize annual panel data for 92 countries across Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania from 1980 to 2024. Temperatures are from NOAA; per-capita CO 2 from the World Bank’s WDI. After unit-root and cointegration tests, we estimate a VECM, perform Granger causality, impulse–response analysis, and forecast error variance decomposition. Findings: Emission shocks cause gradual and persistent warming, confirming a significant long-run effect on temperature. The reverse channel — temperature affecting emissions — is weaker and short-lived. Causality is bidirectional yet asymmetric. Variance decomposition shows emissions which explain a rising share of temperature variability at longer horizons. Conclusion: Long-run emission dynamics dominate short-term fluctuations in shaping global temperature paths. Policies must pair durable emission reductions with targeted adaptation. Implications: The study makes a significant contribution by combining broad temporal and spatial coverage with rigorous time-series modeling. Policymakers should accelerate the deployment of renewable energy, establish credible pathways to climate neutrality, and implement zero-emission programs to mitigate the persistent effects of global warming.