Forecasting of Groundnut Prices in Maharashtra, India

Abstract Price forecasting holds significant implications for several reasons, like Income Security for Farmers, Risk Mitigation, Supply Chain Management, Market Access and Negotiation, Resource Allocation, Policy Formulation, Market Stability, Technological Advancements, and Economic Growth. Price forecasts will provide farmers with valuable insights for optimizing land allocation across various crops, informing crucial decisions regarding sales locations, timing, and potential buyers, ultimately supporting informed marketing strategies. Groundnut is largely cultivated in Maharashtra during the kharif season. The present study aimed to forecast groundnut prices in Mahabharata State. Groundnut prices, on the other hand, were forecasted using an ARIMA (14, 1, 1) model. Our results are forecasted groundnut prices for the months of August 2025 to December 2026. This projection anticipates a decline from August to October, followed by a substantial increase in November, with a subsequent decrease. In conclusion, our research provides valuable insights into the price trends of these key crops in Maharashtra for the specified period. . While the primary focus is on a specific area, incorporating comparative analyses with other crop-producing regions, both within India and globally, is advisable. This approach can reveal whether price factors in the study area are unique or part of broader trends. These forecasts can help stakeholders, including farmers, traders, and policymakers, make informed decisions in the region's dynamic agricultural market.