Reviewing methods for quantifying climate risks to food security and safety in WHO EURO

Abstract Background Climate change will increasingly impact global food systems which has potential consequences for food security and diet quality. It is unclear to what extent risks to food security and safety have been quantified or prioritised in European countries. There is a need to improve CCRA methods to support adaptation decision making and better quantify future impacts on the food system and health. This study aimed to review CCRAs for quantifying climate risks to food security and safety in WHO EURO countries. Methods National and European level CCRAs were identified from national government websites and European document databases e.g. Climate-ADAPT. Data extracted from CCRAs included climate information, modelling data, outcomes, evidence sources, stakeholder involvement, health information, methods for adaptation policy prioritisation and risk urgency scoring. Extracted data was grouped by food system domain (supply & production, retail & environment, consumption, waste). Results Most WHO EURO countries have conducted an assessment of climate risks to at least one food system domain. Most CCRAs include assessment of risks to agriculture and food production but very few include a quantification of these impacts on food security or safety. Very few CCRAs used a food systems approach to quantify risks. Crop yield projections and forecast modelling were utilised by few countries to indicate future risk severity. Across national CCRAs there was limited assessment of inequalities and vulnerability within impacts to the food system. Conclusions Overall, there is a distinct lack of available, good-quality evidence to comprehensively assess risks from climate change on food security and safety in the WHO EURO region. To support food policy decision making, CCRAs should improve methods for quantifying and considering vulnerability to prioritise food system resilience and security.