Air pollution health risks of transport – the case of passenger car fleet electrification

Abstract The transport sector is facing significant challenges in reacting to the need of sustainable, energy-efficient, and pollution-free mobility to improve planetary health. Environmental epidemiology and toxicology have confirmed substantial health impacts from air pollution of road traffic, accounting mainly for fine particles and nitrogen dioxide. Our recent analysis of transport modes, covering EU27, showed dominance of passenger cars regardless of the choice of indicator pollutant in the 2030 Current legislation scenario. Here we evaluate the potential benefits of full electrification of the passenger car fleet. We assume that all the combustion engines in passenger cars are replaced by plug-in rechargeable electric vehicles, eliminating all exhausts. Based on earlier analyses we assume that due to the higher mass, the electric vehicles cause +18% higher road abrasion and tire wear emissions, and that the regenerative breaking technology leads to a halving of the brake wear. We calculate health impacts for primary PM2.5 emissions. The results suggest that in 2030, the transport sector would be responsible for ca. 10,000 premature deaths due to primary PM2.5 and that road traffic and passenger cars cause 91% and 62% of this. Removing the exhaust emissions would save 1258 lives. Despite of benefits of reduced exhaust emissions in electrification of passenger car fleet, substantial air pollution health impacts remain. These estimates are based on general epidemiological evidence. In the next steps of ULTHRAS we consider also toxicological evidence on the exhausts. It is necessary to continue developing technologies and policies to reduce road dust emissions and promote carpooling, supported by autonomous vehicle technologies, public transport services and other exposure reducing polices, such as related to urban planning and construction technologies. Car free zones and active transport routes are success examples, especially in local contexts to reduce human exposure. Key messages • Passenger car electrification alone is not sufficient to remove health burden of traffic. • We need also to consider wider development of urban transport systems to develop healthy living environments.