The Interrelationships among Conspiracy Belief, Government Trust, and COVID-19 Vaccination Behavior

Abstract Background Studies have suggested that conspiracy beliefs and trust in government are key factors influencing individuals’ COVID-19 vaccination intentions and behaviors. However, the mechanisms by which these factors influence vaccination remain unclear. This study hypothesizes that conspiracy beliefs may first affect trust in government, which in turn influences individuals’ attitudes toward and satisfaction with the government's handling of the pandemic, ultimately impacting vaccination intentions and behavior. Methods Data from 18 countries that participated in the 2022 European Social Survey (n = 27,983) were used in this study. Structural equation models (SEM) were constructed using Mplus to analyze the interrelationships among these variables, accounting for survey weights, correlated errors within each country, and individual- and country-level sociodemographic characteristics, as well as COVID-19 mortality rates. Direct and indirect effects of conspiracy beliefs and trust in government on vaccination behaviors were calculated. Results The standardized SEM results showed that conspiracy beliefs have a strong negative impact on trust in government (beta = -0.506). Both conspiracy beliefs and trust in government have significant direct and indirect effects on vaccination intentions and behavior, mediated by attitudes toward and satisfaction with the government's efforts to combat the pandemic. The direct effects of conspiracy beliefs and government trust are -0.125 and 0.150, respectively. The indirect effects are -0.146 and 0.063, respectively. The model demonstrated good fit, indicated by RMSEA = 0.04 and CFI = 0.94. Conclusions This study illustrates that conspiracy beliefs can undermine trust in government, particularly during times of crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Citizens’ evaluations of government performance in handling the crisis serve as a key mechanism linking trust in government to vaccination intentions and behavior. Key messages • Conspiracy beliefs have a strong negative influence on trust in government. • Both conspiracy beliefs and government trust affect COVID-19 vaccination behavior directly and indirectly through individuals’ satisfaction with the government’s handling of the pandemic.