Concomitant diagnoses predispose to a higher risk of disability pension

Abstract Background Work disability has significant economic, social and individual costs. In 2022, totally over 14 million persons had disability person beneficiaries in Europe (Eurostat, 2025). The most common causes of disability are mental health disorders and musculoskeletal disorders. However, we know little about the impact of different combinations of diagnoses on the risk of disability pension. Methods The data comprises 35,100 person's claim applications to a Finnish pension insurer from 2015 to 2022 with a 2-year follow-up. The data includes information about diagnoses of the disease (ICD-10), severity of illness, age, gender, and earnings-related pension benefits (i.e., fixed-term or permanent disability pension). Particularly, we focused on two largest diagnostic groups: mental disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, and different combinations of these. Data were analyzed with logistic regression. Results Diagnosis combinations containing nervous system or circulatory system diagnoses show the largest disability pension likelihood increase. In musculoskeletal diseases, any two diagnoses increased the risk of disability pension compared to a single diagnosis. The combination of arthrosis (M15-M19) and spondylopathies (M45-49) was particularly detrimental. In addition, the presence of either of these diagnoses in combination with another diagnosis increased the risk. Among mental disorders, the greatest risk was associated with a combination of schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders (F20-F29) and other mental disorders (other than F20-F48). Conclusions The risk of disability pension varies with different diagnoses of illness and different combinations of diagnoses. Several combinations showed substantially higher risk than most single diagnoses. Key messages • The risk groups for disability are especially those who have several concomitant illnesses. • Measures to prevent disability should be targeted especially at these risk groups.