How ride-hailing services influenced vehicle use and ownership across the Boston metropolitan region

Abstract A number of research studies have found that ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft have increased the total amount of driving within metropolitan areas. In this study, we examined how the rollout of Uber across the Boston region affected auto use and ownership by analyzing vehicle level data, in contrast to previous research which has relied mostly on aggregate travel measures, questionnaires, or stated-preference surveys. Using vehicle registration and inspection data including odometer readings, we tracked changes to the daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) of 1.7 million vehicles in the Boston region over five years as Uber launched there. We applied fixed-effects panel regression methods controlling for a number of factors, using a panel of vehicles as well as a separate panel of Census tracts to enable analysis of auto ownership per capita and vehicle turnover. Our methods account for secular increases in VMT that occurred during Uber’s launch, and for changes occurring in both VMT and vehicle ownership over time. In contrast to studies finding a strong association between ride-hailing and increased VMT, we found that Uber availability was not statistically related to changes in VMT or auto ownership in the cities of Boston and Cambridge, and outside those core cities was related to a minor 0.6 percent VMT increase, and to very slightly lower rates of vehicle turnover and ownership. The much smaller effects we find using these improved data and methods suggest a need for continued evaluation of the impacts of ride-hailing companies on U.S. cities.