The Burden of Depression, Anxiety and PTSD in Ukraine

Abstract Background The war in Ukraine places a great burden on the mental health of the civilian population. To help guide resource allocation in the health system and post-conflict recovery planning, we calculated Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for depression, anxiety and PTSD. At time of submission, only baseline data from April 2024 to August 2024 is available. Using 1-year follow up data to be collected in Summer 2025, we will additionally model future scenarios to project changes in the mental health burden over time. Methods Estimated prevalences of disorders were derived from the Mental Health Assessment of the Population of Ukraine study (MAP-U), a population-based cohort with a sample of 5'286 participants across ten regions. We calculated DALYs by combining these estimates with disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease framework. The following results reflect median estimates and are reported with a 95% credible interval accounting for prevalence uncertainty. Results We estimate depression to account for 8'519 [6'533-11'361] DALYs per 100'000 in north-western Ukraine, 12'621 [10'158-16'464] in central Ukraine and 11'624 [9'252-15'212] south-eastern Ukraine. For anxiety, we estimate a lower burden of 1'482 [900-2'240] in north-western Ukraine, 2'929 [2'032-4'005] in central Ukraine and 3'528 [2'506-4'735] in south-eastern Ukraine. PTSD is estimated to cause 3'185 [2'350-4'041] DALYs in north-western Ukraine, 4'641 [3'673-5'641] in central Ukraine and 4'228 [3'289-5'209] in south-eastern Ukraine. DALYs were consistently higher among women and often highest for the 18-24 age bracket. Conclusions Depression, followed by PTSD and anxiety, place a great burden on Ukrainians and require a concerted mitigation effort. Consistent with prevalence patterns, the burden is lower in north-western Ukraine than central and south-eastern Ukraine. Projections based on the 1-year follow-up data will further inform long-term recovery planning and resource allocation. Key messages • Depression, followed by PTSD and Anxiety impose a substantial burden on adult Ukrainians, particularly in central and south-eastern regions. Women consistently report higher burdens than men. • There is a strong need for public mental health efforts and planning to support the long-term recovery of Ukrainians.