Forecasting the disease burden in the Nordic countries in 2050: an analysis of the GBD study

Abstract Background Detailed forecasts of disease burden are critical for policymakers to anticipate population health needs, allocate resources and optimise healthcare systems. This study aimed to forecast life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disease burden in the Nordic countries from 2022 to 2050. Methods Forecasting estimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Future health scenarios were modelled based on mortality, fertility, sociodemographic drivers, risk factor exposures and cause-specific incidence and prevalence by sex, age and location. Additional potential for improved LE and HALE was compared between a most likely reference scenario and an alternative scenario where key risks for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were eliminated towards 2050. Results LE, HALE, and disease burden in the Nordic countries were forecasted to continue to improve but at a slower pace than in the past thirty years. Between 2022 and 2050, the annual increase was forecasted to be 0.08 years (0.07 - 0.09), reaching 84.71 years by 2050. The largest increase in life expectancy was forecasted in Finland with 3.68 years, followed by Iceland (2.35 years), Denmark (2.28 years), Norway (1.79 years) and Sweden with 1.69 years. Gains in HALEs were smaller. Population growth and ageing led to an increase in the burden for several age-related causes, while the disease burden for many non-fatal causes was forecasted to remain stable. Eliminating NCD risks could add 2 to 4 years to future life expectancy in 2050. Conclusions The Nordic countries will likely continue to enjoy long life-expectancy and relatively good public health in the future, but population growth and ageing will put significant strains on the welfare and healthcare systems. Policies are essential to mitigate risk factors to promote a healthier, longer-living population. Key messages • The policy makers in the Nordic countries need to prepare for an increase in disease burden driven by the ageing populations. • Without effective interventions, disease burden for common causes in the working-age population will remain stable in the future.