COVID-19 school closures affect adolescents’ educational qualifications and post-school pathways

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread school closures, disrupting adolescents’ education at a critical phase. These disruptions raised concerns about diploma attainment and the transition to further education or employment. This study examines the impact of COVID-related school closures in the Netherlands on basic qualification attainment and post-school activities. Methods We analysed the Dutch School Leavers Survey, adjusting for socio-demographic, economic, and educational factors. Secondary education (VO) and vocational (MBO) students who left school were included (N = 30,833), comparing pre-COVID (2016-2019) and COVID (2020-2022) cohorts. Logistic regression analyses examined minimum educational qualification and having paid work, while multinomial regression analyses examined post-school activities. Results During the pandemic, school leavers were more likely to complete their minimum qualification and engage in paid work. Secondary education students who left school during COVID were more likely to drop out of or complete only brief follow-up education than pre-COVID leavers. Both secondary education and vocational students in the COVID cohort were less likely to focus solely on studies compared to pre-COVID students and more likely to combine education with work or work exclusively. Conclusions The results show a shift in the education-to-work transition, with adolescents more likely to enter work earlier or combine it with study. COVID school leavers were also more likely to complete the minimum qualification and exit further education sooner. These shifts may reflect changes in education delivery, the labour market, or personal factors. Relaxed exam policies during COVID may have led to early qualifications, increasing the risk of dropout due to enrolment before students were ready. These changes highlight the need to assess how disruptions like school closures affect adolescents and to support them towards their intended post-school pathways. Key messages • COVID school leavers were more likely to gain basic qualifications, leave further studies and work sooner. • Findings stress the need to track disruptions and assist students’ post-school transitions.