Accumulation by transition or genuine transformation? Speculative political ecologies of Central Appalachia’s emerging forest carbon economy

As trust in the validity of forest carbon credits decreases, a market for high integrity forest carbon credits is emerging in Central Appalachia, a region known for its vast natural resources and fundamentally shaped by their extraction. This market is also emerging in the context of a just transition away from fossil fuels (just according to whom?) that have historically supported the region’s economy. This paper situates the initial contours and outcomes of the Family Forest Carbon Program, a joint project by The Nature Conservancy and the American Forest Foundation, as either contributing to yet another round of capitalist accumulation – accumulation by transition – or representing an opportunity for genuine socioecological transformation. Utilizing a speculative political ecology approach and a combination of power mapping, archival analysis, site visits, and semi-structured interviews, this paper identifies three themes, or conjunctures, that can be understood as chances to either continue historical patterns of dispossession or potentially disrupt them: addressing histories of unequal land ownership; identifying and avoiding processes of primitive accumulation; and determining who is ultimately benefiting from the forest carbon economy.