Systematic Analysis of Global Risks: An AHP-Based Evaluation of Youth Unemployment, Climate Change, and Artificial Intelligence in the Context of Western Liberal Democracies and Türkiye

This study applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to systematically evaluate and prioritize three major global risks—youth unemployment, climate change, and artificial intelligence—within the context of Western liberal democracies and Türkiye. Building on a two-level hierarchical framework, five analytical criteria were adopted: Likelihood of Occurrence, Speed of Emergence, Governability and Policy Preparedness, Inclusiveness of Impact, and Indirect Effects on Democracy. Pairwise comparisons were conducted and aggregated using the geometric mean method, and consistency ratios (CR) were calculated to ensure methodological reliability. The results reveal that Climate Change ranks as the most critical global risk, primarily due to its broad societal impact and manageability through governance structures. Youth Unemployment follows as a highly probable and politically destabilizing risk, particularly affecting democratic resilience. Artificial Intelligence is placed third overall but emerges as the fastest-growing threat, especially in relation to governance and democratic trust. The study highlights the multidimensional nature of global risks, with each risk dominating in different evaluative dimensions. It also demonstrates the effectiveness of AHP in integrating qualitative judgments into a systematic, quantitative framework. The findings underline the importance of differentiated yet coordinated policy responses, combining immediate socio-economic measures, long-term sustainability strategies, and anticipatory governance of emerging technologies. Keywords: Global Risk, AHP, Climate Change, Youth Unemployment, Artificial Intelligence