Predicting Survey Nonresponse with Registry Data in Sweden between 1993 and 2023: Cohort Replacement or a Deteriorating Survey Climate?

Declining response rates have remained a major worry for survey research in the 21st century. In the past decades, it has become harder to convince people to participate in surveys in virtually all Western nations. Worrisome, declining willingness to participate in surveys (i.e., response propensities) may increase the risk of extensive nonresponse bias. Therefore, a better understanding of which factors are associated with survey nonresponse and its impact on nonresponse bias is paramount for any survey researcher interested in accurate statistical inferences. Knowing which factors relate to low response propensities enables appropriate models of nonresponse weights and aids in identifying which groups to tailor efforts for turning nonrespondents into respondents. This manuscript draws on previous theories and research on nonresponse and investigates the risk of nonresponse bias, both cross-sectionally and over time, in two time series cross-sectional studies administered in Sweden (the National SOM Surveys 1993-2023 and the Swedish National Election Study 2022). Capitalizing on available registry data on all sampled persons and their corresponding neighborhood-level contextual data, a meta-analytical analysis of nine years of data collection finds that educational attainment, age, and country of birth are among the strongest predictors of response propensities. However, contextual factors—such as living in socially disadvantaged neighborhoods—also predict willingness to participate in surveys. Furthermore, utilizing the three decades of data, the growing nonresponse could be identified to be wholly attributable to a deteriorating survey climate rather than birth cohort replacement or immigration patterns.