Developing a carbon reduction potential indicator: a cross-level analysis of administrative regions in China based on a systematic review

• This study introduces a new indicator, carbon reduction potential (CRP). • We quantified 62 regional carbon reduction pathways across six administrative levels. • The top three national reduction pathways are renewable energy, shifting energy-intensive industries, and CCS. • The building sector has the highest CRP, followed by transportation and industry. This study introduces a Carbon Reduction Potential (CRP) indicator and quantifies 62 regional carbon reduction pathways identified from 109 articles across six administrative levels: national, provincial, city, county, township, and village. This study reveals that city-level research is the most prevalent, accounting for 42.20%, followed by national-level at 29.36% and provincial-level research at 22.94%. At the national level, the top three pathways for carbon reduction within the energy demand sector are: renewable energy, the shift of energy-intensive industries, and carbon capture and storage, with CRPs of 0.34, 0.23, and 0.16, respectively, by 2040. For the energy supply sector, the most significant pathway is phase-out of coal power with CRP of 1.0 by 2050. The building sector shows the highest CRP, followed by transportation and industrial sectors. At the provincial level, Hebei and Jiangxi have the largest CRPs of 0.64 and 0.45, respectively, by 2050. At the city level, the two highest CRP pathways identified for Beijing, both with a value of 0.80 in 2060, are energy transformation and electrification. This study also explores how the regional development imbalance across China leads to variations in reduction pathways and offers insights into the cross-level effects of carbon reduction pathways.