THE NEXUS BETWEEN GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND CORPORATE MARGINS: IBM AS A CASE IN POINT

Purpose: This research paper explores the impact of geopolitical risk (measured via Geopolitical Risk Index) on IBM's profitability, specifically focusing on profit margins from Fiscal Year (FY) 2009 to FY 2023. Design/Methodology/Approach: Utilizing quantitative methodologies, including correlation and regression analyses, the study identifies a significant negative relationship between the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) and IBM’s profit margins. Findings: The findings reveal that periods of heightened geopolitical tension, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and major trade disputes, correspond with substantial declines in profitability. However, variations in the correlation suggest that additional factors, including market strategies and operational efficiencies, also influence profit margins. Practical Implications: This research underscores the importance of geopolitical risk assessment in multinational corporations which is often overlooked and highlights the need for a multifaceted approach to understanding the drivers of financial performance. Originality/Value: The results provide valuable insights for policymakers and business leaders navigating the complexities of a geopolitically volatile environment.