Critical minerals, dependence and global power competition: governance challenges in South America's lithium triangle

Against the backdrop of ongoing global climate change, the continuous development of electric vehicles and renewable energy storage technologies has made lithium a critical and highly sought-after mineral resource worldwide. Projections indicate that lithium demand could increase up to 40-fold by 2040, with electromobility accounting for 80% of its end use. This rapid growth has intensified global competition for access to critical mineral resources, a race that has been further accelerated by energy disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts, including the war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the Lithium Triangle—comprising Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile—has gained renewed international significance, as it holds approximately 60% of the world’s lithium resources and 47% of its reserves, placing South America at the forefront of the global lithium supply chain. This paper focuses on two key dimensions of governance in the Lithium Triangle. The first dimension examines domestic regulatory frameworks in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, analyzing their impact on the development of the lithium industry and their integration into global supply chains. The analysis will adopt an International Political Economy approach, focusing on the concepts of dependence, primarization, development models linked to industrialization, and regional integration. The central argument is that the absence of robust medium- and long-term policies for resource management, investment regulation, and trade could perpetuate primary-export economic models, reinforcing external dependence.