Material Degradation and NaTech Risk: A Case Study to Discuss Bidirectional Vulnerability in Industrial Systems

Material degradation is a critical factor in assessing the vulnerability of industrial infrastructure, particularly in the presence of extreme natural events. This study shows that the relation between material degradation and NaTech risk is both bidirectional and systemic, with important implications for industrial safety. Through the analysis of an emblematic case study, it was demonstrated that latent defects, originating during the construction phase, can remain silent for decades and manifest critically under the action of extreme natural events. The objective is to provide a useful methodological tool for the early diagnosis of systemic risk conditions and for planning preventive and resilient strategies. The proposed approach overcomes the traditional separation between degradation analysis and environmental risk assessment, promoting a holistic and adaptive view of vulnerability. Specifically, integrating the concept of structural obsolescence into NaTech risk models allows for a more realistic representation of systemic exposure and supports the planning of more effective prevention strategies. The case study analysis highlights the interaction between latent structural defects and environmental stresses, offering insights for interpreting vulnerability in complex and multifactorial scenarios. The outcome provides perspectives for the integration of quantitative indicators into NaTech risk models.