Buyout, Continuing, Stopping? Dairy farmers Coping With Dutch Nutrient Policies

Poster presented at the 18th EAAE Congress in Bonn in 2025. Abstract The Netherlands fails to reduce its nitrogen and phosphate surpluses, and ammonia emissions to the air to the required standards. This makes a reduction of livestock numbers inevitable especially now the Netherlands loses its derogation for nitrogen application standards in 2026. Buyout schemes and more strict regulations are ways of doing this. For this purpose, this paper simulates 5 representative dairy farms to determine the attractiveness of continued farming, selling the farm and participating in a buyout scheme. The strength of the model developed is that it mimics closely the complex Dutch nutrient policies. We find that the buyout is the most attractive option in all cases. Selling the farm is the second-best option for small and organic farms while for the other farms this is farm continuation. Results are heavily driven by the years until retirement and the price of compensation rights in the buyout scheme. Keywords: Buyout scheme, nutrient policies, simulation model Further information ACT4CAP27 is a European research project aiming to enhance analytical capabilities, tools, and collaborative technical infrastructure within the policy modelling community, to provide support for evidence-based EU agri-food policies post-2027. ACT4CAP27 Project coordination: Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, NLContact: [email protected] | Website: https://act4cap27.eu/ Project duration: 1 March 2024 – 28 February 2029 Funding acknowledgement ACT4CAP27 is funded by the European Union. Horizon Europe Grant Agreement No. 101134874. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.