The sustainability of agri-food systems: is organic production part of the solution?

Paper presented at the 99th Annual Conference of The Agricultural Economics Society, Bordeaux School of Economics – University of Bordeaux, France, 14th – 16th April 2025 AbstractThe sustainability of European agri-food systems is a central challenge in light of population growth, climate change, and environmental degradation. This study investigates the role of organic agriculture in supporting the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) post-2027, with a specific focus on Italy. Using an extended version of the SIMPLE (Simplified International Model of Agricultural Prices, Land Use, and Environment) partial equilibrium model, we distinguish between organic and conventional crop production, developing a comprehensive dataset of production, prices, and inputs. Simulation scenarios explore the socio-economic and environmental impacts of expanding organic cropland in line with the EU Green Deal target of 25% by 2030. Results indicate that increasing organic land can enhance food availability and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but may also raise food prices and increase non-land input use, highlighting a trade-off between sustainability, affordability, and resource efficiency. These findings provide evidence to inform CAP policy design, emphasizing the need for continued support for organic practices alongside complementary strategies to ensure a balanced transition towards sustainable agriculture. KeywordsOrganic agriculture; Sustainable agri-food systems; Common Agricultural Policy; SIMPLE model; Italy; Green Deal; Food security; Environmental impact; Post-2027 EU policy Further information ACT4CAP27 is a European research project aiming to enhance analytical capabilities, tools, and collaborative technical infrastructure within the policy modelling community, to provide support for evidence-based EU agri-food policies post-2027. ACT4CAP27 Project coordination: Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, NLContact: [email protected] | Website: https://act4cap27.eu/ Project duration: 1 March 2024 – 28 February 2029 Funding acknowledgement ACT4CAP27 is funded by the European Union. Horizon Europe Grant Agreement No. 101134874. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.