Least Cost Electrification Pathway for Electricity Access in the Niger Delta- An OnSSET Based Approach

This presentation applies geospatial electrification modeling to identify optimal technology pathways for achieving universal electricity access in Nigeria's NDDC states by 2035. Using the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) integrated with QGIS, we analyzed population distribution, grid infrastructure, renewable energy resources, and terrain data from WorldPop, UN, World Bank, and IEA sources. Three scenarios were modeled comparing phased versus accelerated electrification strategies. Results demonstrate that grid densification, strategic grid extension, and decentralized solar solutions (mini-grids and stand-alone systems) offer the most cost-effective pathway, requiring approximately $5.4 billion in total investment. Key findings reveal that demographic density, distance to existing grid infrastructure, and solar resource availability are primary determinants of technology selection.