The impact of socio-economic factors on the dynamics of social pressure in Kazakhstan

Type of the article: Research articleAbstractThe purpose of the study was is to assess the impact of key factors (including employment, income, poverty level, prices and social support) on the dynamics of social pressure in Kazakhstan. The analysis covered the period from 2014 to 2024 and utilized official data. The methodology combines entropy-based ranking of indicators, calculation of the Socio-Economic Pressure Index (SEPI), Social Stability Index (SSI), and Social Inertia Index (SII), as well as phase-portrait visualization. The entropy ranking revealed that the share of population below the food basket cost (di = 0.71; Wi = 0.2381) and housing assistance (di = 0.516; Wi = 0.1728) had the highest variability and the strongest influence on SEPI. Moreover, SEPI rose from 0.0967 in 2014 to its peak in 2023 – over 20 times higher – before falling to 0.53 in 2024. SSI dropped from 4.94 in 2017 to 0.44 in 2023, with minimal adaptive capacity, and partial recovery to 1.87 in 2024. There was recorded instability of positive changes and a high likelihood of renewed pressure due to the lowest value of SII (–3.24) in 2024. Thus, long-term stability and a reduction in the social sphere’s susceptibility to external and internal shocks require integrated policy measures that combine targeted support, income regulation, and adaptive governance.AcknowledgmentsThis research has been funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant “Development of mechanisms for reducing social inequality and improving the welfare of the population of Kazakhstan” AP19174744).