Canada’s climate policy crossroads: Supply-side pressures and competing energy futures

• Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions goals are at odds with its intentions for fossil fuel production. • The provinces most dependent on oil and gas extraction avoid aligning production with territorial emissions reductions. • In contrast, Quebec has foregone fossil fuel development to become a climate policy leader. • Fossil fuel dependency creates economic vulnerability as global demand shifts. • Canadian climate policy requires a dual focus on both fossil fuel supply and demand. This article documents interprovincial variation in climate and energy policy trends within Canada to explore the disconnect between climate ambition and aspirations for fossil fuel production. We compare subnational policies concerning domestic emissions and fossil fuel production within and across four provinces. Unsurprisingly, the provinces most economically dependent on fossil fuel production are both committed to expanding production and less ambitious with respect to reducing their emissions within their borders. Yet Quebec took a different path, forgoing development of its oil and gas reserves, and instead focusing on deep emissions reductions and building a lower-carbon economy that will be more resilient in the ongoing global energy transition. In a more ambivalent policy position, British Columbia has committed to expanding gas production for export, yet has remained relatively ambitious with respect to reducing its territorial emissions. Set in the overarching national energy and climate policy context, this article underscores the disconnect between production and territorial emission policies, one that leaves Canada economically vulnerable while the global energy transition unfolds, decreasing global fossil fuel demand.