A Dynamic Model for Financial Risk Assessment in Mega Infrastructure Projects : An AI and Root Cause Analysis-Based System for Saudi Vision 2030

This research bridges the gap of traditional static financial risk models in relation to Saudi Vision 2030 giga-projects. It proposes a new conceptual model, the "AI and RCA-Based Analytical System" (ARAS), that can dynamically predict financial risks in real-time and determine their reason. Based on a constructive research design and demonstrated by two case studies, the paper shows how ARAS is able to detect potential cost overruns and shortages of liquidity months in advance and track them down to their cause like dependence on suppliers or contract deficiencies. The study concludes that the shift to a predictive, AI-based such system is a strategic necessity to secure national investments, enhance project resilience, and enable successful implementation of the Kingdom's value-driven transformation agenda.