Interconnectedness between Corporate Governance, Global Burden of Disease, SARS-CoV and Banking Sector Development in Nigeria: The Role of Institutional Quality

Background: Nigeria’s banking sector has experienced profound reforms and restructuring, shaped by governance transitions and recurrent global health crises such as SARS-CoV. However, the nexus between corporate governance, institutional quality, and health shocks, and their joint implications for financial sector development, has not been adequately examined. This study investigates the interplay of corporate governance, institutional quality, and health shocks in influencing banking sector development in Nigeria from 2000 to 2024. It specifically assesses the direct role of governance, the disruptive effects of health crises, and the moderating contribution of institutional quality. By employing QARDL and FMOLS approaches, the study captures both short- and long-run dynamics while identifying structural breakpoints linked to reforms and health disruptions. Methods: The Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) model is applied to estimate asymmetric and quantile-specific effects, while Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) validates long-run robustness. Structural break tests are conducted to identify critical periods of disruption. Results: The results reveal that governance, health shocks, and credit flows interact in quantile-dependent ways. Short-run dynamics highlight the importance of credit persistence, governance quality, and health sector responsiveness, whereas in the long run, the rule of law consistently fosters banking sector growth. Breakpoints in 2004, 2005, 2015, and 2016 coincide with major reforms and health crises. Conclusion: Strengthening institutional quality, particularly legal and regulatory frameworks, is central to financial resilience. Policy priorities include reinforcing governance through oversight and audits, integrating health risks into financial planning, and leveraging digital innovations to enhance institutional responsiveness.