Connecting Global Markets and Farm Household Income in the Central Highlands of Vietnam: The Case of World Coffee Price Fluctuations

Vietnam is the world’s second-largest coffee exporter and the leading producer of Robusta coffee, with over 90% of its production coming from smallholder farmers in the Central Highlands. Despite the sector’s significant contribution to the national economy, coffee-farming households face various challenges in maintaining and increasing income, including global price fluctuations, rising input costs, and aging plantations. This study aims to examine the factors influencing the average annual income of coffee-farming households in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, using a quantitative approach based on a household survey dataset. The multiple linear regression results reveal that global coffee price, production cost, coffee yield, and access to credit are statistically significant determinants of income. While cultivated area and education level show positive relationships with income, their effects are not statistically significant at the 5% level. These findings confirm the applicability of the Agricultural Household Model (Singh et al., 1986) and Price Transmission Theory (Meyer & von Cramon-Taubadel, 2004) in the Vietnamese context. The study offers practical implications for policymakers, particularly in designing support programs for input cost reduction, credit access, yield improvement, and technical training, aiming to enhance the resilience and profitability of smallholder coffee farmers.