Walling Off Crime: An Analysis of the Local Deterrent Effects of Increased Border Control

Abstract This paper analyzes the deterrent effects of both border patrol agents and increased United States–Mexico fencing on reported crime rates in U.S. cities located along the border, between 1992 and 2016. We find that, for cities along the United States–Mexico border, increases in the number of border patrol agents, within patrol sectors, are associated with significant declines in property crime rates and that increased border fencing is associated with significant declines in both property and violent crime rates. Further investigation into the underlying mechanisms provides evidence that border control measures are associated with significant reductions in the apprehension of migrants in the border region with prior convictions for other, non-migration-related crimes. The avoided crime indicated by the baseline estimates represents an annual economic benefit, ranging, on average, from $2,300 for an additional border patrol agent to $650,700 for an additional mile of in-city fencing, relative to an estimated cost of $174,000 to hire an agent and $2.8 million to install a mile of border fencing.