Modelling Energy Demand for Cooling in Service Sector Nigeria: Pathways for Sustainable Energy Planning and Climate Resilience

Cooling services constitute a rapidly expanding segment of Nigeria’s service sector, driven by rising temperatures, urbanization, and an increasing middle-class population. This study models the energy demand for cooling in Nigeria’s service sector, focusing on the implications of efficiency improvements and air-conditioned floor area expansion on future energy consumption. Using scenario-based analysis, the research evaluates Business-as-Usual (BAU), Optimistic, and Transformative pathways under different efficiency and policy assumptions. Results indicate a 29.3% reduction in cooling energy demand under the Optimistic Scenario and a 15.3% increase under the Transformative Scenario. When aligned with the National Cooling Action Plan (N-CAP 2022), its translating to potential financial savings of USD 2.88 billion compared to BAU. Conversely, inadequate efficiency measures could result in a 32% increase in energy demand and a loss of USD 1.54 billion. The study underscores the urgent need for policies discouraging the importation of inefficient air conditioning systems and promoting tariff exemptions for energy-efficient technologies. Future research should prioritize real-time, disaggregated data acquisition for improved baseline accuracy and scenario modeling. These findings provide a policy-relevant framework for achieving sustainable, climate-resilient cooling in Nigeria’s service sector.