Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Policies on Transport Electrification and Fuel Demand in Nigeria Using MAED

Abstract Nigeria’s transport sector accounts for about 60% of petroleum consumption and is a major source of emissions. This study uses the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to assess how energy transition policies affect transport electrification and fuel demand to 2060. Three scenarios—Business-as-Usual, Policy-Driven Electrification, and Public Transport Electrification—reflect NADDC 2033 targets and the Energy Transition Plan. Results show that electric and hydrogen vehicles can greatly reduce fossil fuel use and emissions while supporting growth. The Public Transport Electrification scenario offers the best balance between energy efficiency, emission reduction, and feasibility. Strengthened EV policies, infrastructure investment, and integration with national energy frameworks are key to achieving Nigeria’s 2060 net-zero target.