Aggregate Modeling of Air-Conditioner Loads Under Packet-based Control with Both On and Off Grid Access Requests

Coordination of distributed energy resources (DERs) can engender flexibility necessary to improve grid reliability. Packetized Energy Management (PEM) is a method for coordinating DERs, such as thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) and electric vehicles, within customer quality-of-service (QoS) limits. In PEM, a DER uses local information to offer flexibility by sending a request to the DER coordinator to turn-ON or turn-OFF. Much work has focused on modeling and analyzing aggregations of DERs under PEM with fixed packet durations and only turn-ON requests. Different recent efforts to enable variable packet lengths have shown an increase in available flexibility and ramping capability, but have not been modeled in aggregate, which limits systematic analyses. To address this issue, this paper presents a new aggregate bin-based (macro) model of PEM loads that incorporates both turn-ON and turn-OFF request features, enabling the model to accurately characterize the capability of the fleet of DERs to track a power reference signal, population temperature dynamics, aggregate request rates, and variable packet lengths. Simulation-based validation is performed against an agent-based (micro) model to evaluate robustness and quantify model accuracy. Finally, the distribution of variable packet lengths from macro-model simulations are applied to inform past work on PEM with randomized packet lengths