A Monte Carlo approach to bound Trotter error

Trotter product formulas are a natural and powerful approach to perform quantum simulation. However, the error analysis of product formulas is challenging, and their cost is often overestimated. It is established that Trotter error can be bounded in terms of spectral norms of nested commutators of the Hamiltonian partitions [Childs et al., Phys. Rev. X 11, 011020], but evaluating these expressions is challenging, often achieved by repeated application of the triangle inequality, significantly loosening the bound. Here, we show that the spectral norm of an operator can be upper bounded by the spectral norm of an equivalent sign-problem-free operator, which can be calculated efficiently to large system sizes using projector Monte Carlo simulation. For a range of Hamiltonians and considering second-order formulas, we demonstrate that this Monte Carlo-based bound is often extremely tight, and even exact in some instances. For the uniform electron gas we reduce the cost of performing Trotterization from the literature by an order of magnitude. For the Pariser-Parr-Pople model for linear acene molecules, which has $\mathcal{O}(N^2)$ long-range interaction terms, we show that it suffices to use $\mathcal{O}(N^{0.57})$ Trotter steps and circuit depth $\mathcal{O}(N^{1.57})$ to implement Hamiltonian simulation. We hope that this approach will lead to a better understanding of the potential accuracy of Trotterization in a range of important applications.