Preanalysis plan and files for: Expert survey for prior elicitation for hypotheses on why negotiations about a Jamaica coalition failed in 2017

The goal is to gather information from a survey of experts on German party politics for a follow-up Bayesian qualitative analysis. The focus is on why negotiations ("Sondierungsgespräche") about a federal Jamaica coalition unexpectedly failed in Germany in 2017. Experts will rate the probability that two hypotheses cover the main reason for the failure. These hypotheses were derived from an exploratory qualitative content analysis of media reports about the development and failure of the negotiations. This preanalysis plan (PAP) and supplementary files specify the analysis' elements and choices before the expert survey begins. Thus, the criterion of ex ante unobservability of the data is met.