D3.2 Analysis of bottom-up business models, Cost Benefit Analysis and crowdfunding strategy - Part 2

The SUPERSHINE project investigates the technical, economic and social feasibility of deep-energy renovation in three lighthouse districts ( Trieste- Italy, Riga- Latvia and Herning - Denmark). Each site functions as a case study in which technical energy savings simulations are integrated with macroeconomic modelling and context-specific public-private-partnership (PPP) structures.Technical performance: High-resolution digital‐twin models, parameterised with in site monitoring data, were employed to assess bundled interventions that include envelope insulation, high-performance glazing, high-efficiency HVAC systems and on-site renewable generation. The simulations project annual final-energy-demand reductions of approximately 75% in Trieste, 58% in Riga and 45% in Herning. In Trieste alone, the corresponding avoidance of operational emissions exceeds 120 tCO₂ yr, thereby substantiating the environmental credibility of the proposed retrofit packages.Financial evaluation: Physical energy savings were translated into 25-year cash-flow forecasts using a bottom-up business model approach that incorporates various scenarios for electricity market bid prices, inflation and three investment interest-rate regimes. Country-specific social discount rates (Italy = 3.4 %, Denmark = 4.0 % and Latvia = 7.7 %), derived via the weighted average social discount rate method, were applied to capture both intergenerational equity (social rate of time preference) and capital-scarcity considerations (social opportunity cost). Under conservative assumptions and assuming public-grant coverage of 50–66% of capital expenditure, bundled renovation packages are expected to yield a potential 11–13% Return on Investment (ROI) and achieve a payback within 10–12 years.Public Private Partnership contract: PPP templates are tailored to local governance structures. Trieste employs a shared savings PPP contract, allocating technical and credit risk to the energy-service company (ESCO) while granting the social housing association and tenants a share of excess savings. Herning’s tenant-owned cooperative utilises a guaranteed-savings model underpinned by low-interest “green” mortgages. Riga’s housing associations adopt a guaranteed savings contract that activates ALTUM grants once a 30% energy-reduction threshold is demonstrated. Across all pilots, these mechanisms distribute risk equitably among ESCOs, public authorities and financial institutions while safeguarding tenant welfare.Crowdfunding strategy: Post-grant funding of 15% to 35% of total capital will be raised through equity crowdfunding to be conducted on the Consob-regulated Concrete Investing platform by TENDER Capital. The expected investment to be raised through this strategy is €350,000 for each lighthouse. Community and private investor stakeholder participation lowers the weighted-average cost of capital and enhances local ownership of the renovation process.Financial analysis main findings: Stress-testing under concessional (3–4 %) and commercial (5-6%) loan rates confirms the resilience of project economics; even at higher borrowing costs, ROIs remain ≥ 8%. Single-measure retrofits, by contrast, seldom reach break-even, demonstrating the necessity of a holistic intervention strategy. Beyond financial metrics, the integrated packages are expected to reduce tenant energy bills by up to 40%, are projected to abate > 50 kt CO₂ over their lifetime and generate approximately €1.9 million in gross value added and 15–18 job-years per €1 million invested.